BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//jEvents 2.0 for Joomla//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Asia/Kuching BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20190529T080000 RDATE:20380119T111407 TZOFFSETFROM:+0800 TZOFFSETTO:+0800 TZNAME:Asia/Kuching +08 END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:9038e112825e5e0a36472b0d98bb3585 CATEGORIES:Stories CREATED:20200529T135702 SUMMARY:Modelling the COVID-19 Transmission for Malaysia DESCRIPTION:Early this year starts the global journey in battling to control the spread of COVID-19. As of 27 May 2020, the total infected cases is way surpassed 5 million people and have caused 348,610 (6.27%) deaths. Malaysia reported 7,604 total cases of COVID-19, potentially becoming the deadliest epidemic in Malaysia history.\n\nMany countries have relied on mathematical models i n assisting the forecast of the progression of the disease. The Malaysia Mi nistry of Health have also consulted a group of disease modelers for decisi on making. One of the models referred was developed at the faculty. The mod el is an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model which includes additional compartments namely the Traced, Isolation and Quaranti ne compartments (STEQIR). Such model compartmentalized the total population in Malaysia. In order to assist policymakers in making decision, the model ers will refer to the force of infection parameter in the model. Based on t he STEQIR model, the force of infection consists of the product of two para meters which correspond to the average number of contacts per day per case and the proportion of exposed person who performed effective precaution. Th ese parameters correspond to the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) enforce d during the Movement Control Order (MCO). Having the freedom to adjust the se two parameters will reveal the prediction of the disease spread and thus assist in the decision whether to extend the MCO or not.\n\nBased on the s imulations, it is found that at least 80% of the exposed population must ma ke sure that they follow the SOP and perform self-precaution effectively. I n view of the fact that there are asymptomatic cases then it is difficult t o know exactly who are exposed. This means, in order to reach this proporti on then we must assume that everyone who leave their home to work or some o ther allowed activities are the exposed group. This indicates that they mus t follow the SOP (3C3W) effectively.\n X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:
Early this year starts the global journey in battling to control the spr ead of COVID-19. As of 27 May 2020, the total infected cases is way surpass ed 5 million people and have caused 348,610 (6.27%) deaths. Malaysia report ed 7,604 total cases of COVID-19, potentially becoming the deadliest epidem ic in Malaysia history.
Many countries have relied on mathemati
cal models in assisting the forecast of the progression of the disease. The
Malaysia Ministry of Health have also consulted a group of disease modeler
s for decision making. One of the models referred was developed at the facu
lty. The model is an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)
model which includes additional compartments namely the Traced, Isolation
and Quarantine compartments (STEQIR). Such model compartmentalized the tota
l population in Malaysia. In order to assist policymakers in making decisio
n, the modelers will refer to the force of infection parameter in the model
. Based on the STEQIR model, the force of infection consists of the product
of two parameters which correspond to the average number of contacts per d
ay per case and the proportion of exposed person who performed effective pr
ecaution. These parameters correspond to the Standard Operating Procedure (
SOP) enforced during the Movement Control Order (MCO). Having the freedom t
o adjust these two parameters will reveal the prediction of the disease spr
ead and thus assist in the decision whether to extend the MCO or not.
Based on the simulations, it i s found that at least 80% of the exposed population must make sure that the y follow the SOP and perform self-precaution effectively. In view of the fa ct that there are asymptomatic cases then it is difficult to know exactly w ho are exposed. This means, in order to reach this proportion then we must assume that everyone who leave their home to work or some other allowed act ivities are the exposed group. This indicates that they must follow the SOP (3C3W) effectively.
DTSTAMP:20240329T161806Z DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Kuching:20200529T080000 SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR